Northeast Climate Integrated Modeling (NCLIM)

The Northeast U.S. Shelf Ecosystem is a complex, rapidly changing region that supports a wide array of living marine resources and resource-dependent human communities. Commercial and recreational fisheries are key contributors to the economy of the region, contributing billions in economic value and generating hundreds of thousands of job opportunities. This economic productivity is threatened by the rapid changes underway in this ecosystem, and the limited use of climate data in the assessment and management process amplifies the challenges facing this industry and the communities that rely on it.

The Northeast U.S. is experiencing unprecedented, rapid changes in ocean conditions, and as such, is positioned to be ideal test case for understanding the process of human adaptation to climate change. Over the last forty years, the waters of the Northwest Atlantic have warmed at a rate four times the global average, and recent decadal warming is among the fastest in the world. This warming has already led to geographic shifts in commercial species and declines in economically and culturally important stocks.

Due to the rapid pace of change in the region, there is a critical need to develop and apply science knowledge and tools that can help support decision-making in our fisheries. Making forward-looking decisions will be crucial as we learn how to adapt to these unprecedented changes.

Some of the critical questions facing the region include:

1. How do we sustainably harvest resources as they move outside historic ranges?
2. How will fisheries stay profitable when fisheries productivity and distribution change?

For generations, people have answered questions like these based on past experiences, however, accelerating climate change means that past experiences are increasingly unreliable for informing forward-looking decisions. As climate change accelerates, there is a critical need to anticipate changes in the future of fisheries that have not occurred in the past. This type of transformation, from a reliance on historical observations to forward-looking decision-making, requires research that integrates our knowledge of natural and human systems.

The goal of our NCLIM research is to develop an integrated modeling framework to inform marine resource decision-making under projected climate change in the Northeast U.S. This framework will integrate: 1) global climate models, 2) regional oceanographic models, 3) ecosystem and population models, and 4) human dimensions models. We will demonstrate the utility of this integrated modeling framework to inform fisheries decision challenges for species that have demonstrated shifts in distribution and changes in productivity (Atlantic cod and black sea bass). Our proposed integrative modeling initiative aims to improve our understanding of the changing ocean and tackle the challenge of building climate resilience in the fisheries of the Northeast U.S. Ocean health, food security, community persistence, and our seafood economy all depend on finding a path forward that mitigates risks and maximizes opportunities.